Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Areas affected...Far eastern OK...Western/central AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291811Z - 292015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
across the region over the next few hours. Limited severe coverage
is expected to preclude the need for a watch until possibly later
this afternoon/early evening.
DISCUSSION...Strong low-level flow continues to advect moisture
northward into eastern OK and western AR. Recent radar imagery has
shown an increase in convective coverage over the past hour or so,
likely a result of ongoing moist isentropic ascent within the
continually destabilizing airmass. Moisture advection and isentropic
ascent are expected to persist throughout the afternoon with
thunderstorms expected to continue throughout the time frame as
well.
This area is on the edge of the stronger flow aloft and current
mesoanalysis indicates a gradient in the effective shear from 50 kt
across central OK to less than 30 kt across central AR, which is
sufficient enough to support updraft organization. Elevated nature
of the convection and continual storm interactions will make robust
updraft organization difficult but, given the strength of the
instability and adequate shear, some hail is still possible. A wet
downburst or two may also occur.
..Mosier/Weiss.. 04/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35489533 36399433 36209296 35669218 34209277 34089547
35489533
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/I57NCr
No comments:
Post a Comment