Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue May 02 2017 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... A disturbance embedded within the western portion of broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, overlying a large portion of the central and eastern States, is forecast to advance from portions of the Rockies to the southern High Plains. Ahead of this disturbance, lee surface troughing will be enhanced across portions of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, embedded within the eastern portion of the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow regime, a shortwave trough is forecast to track from portions of the Great Lakes region to the northeast States. ...Portions of southeast AZ, central/southern NM, far west TX... Vertical mixing into modestly enhanced flow aloft accompanying the aforementioned mid-level disturbance, combined with a relatively tightened pressure gradient surrounding the lee surface trough, are forecast to support an increase in wind speeds. This will occur amid antecedent low RH, with downslope-flow-enhanced warming and drying further supporting the low RH. The strongest winds -- west-southwesterly around 20-22 mph -- are expected across a small portion of southeastern NM. In this area, minimum RH in the middle and upper single digits is expected amid dry fuels. As a result, a Critical fire-weather area is in effect. Surrounding the Critical area, RH values from the middle single digits to the lower teens are expected. However, winds (southwesterly to westerly) are forecast to be relatively weaker with speeds around 15-20 mph. While elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, the lack of stronger low-level flow is expected to mitigate the critical fire-weather risk. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region... Enhanced west-southwesterly to westerly winds, to the south of a deep surface cyclone accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough over the northeast States, are expected across the region. As a result, downslope-flow-enhanced warming/drying is expected across portions of the Piedmont region eastward to the coastal plain, where minimum RH in the 20s and 30s is expected this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts will be possible. While elevated meteorological conditions could exist, recent precipitation and related fuel moistening are presently expected to mitigate the fire-weather risk sufficiently, such that fire-weather highlights have not been included at this time. ..Cohen.. 05/02/2017 ...Please see http://ift.tt/2i2um2s for graphic product...Read more
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