Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Areas affected...southeast West Virginia through western and central
Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 011829Z - 012030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to undergo a slow but gradual
increase in intensity from eastern West Virginia into west and
central VA this afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for
a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing along and just ahead of the cold front within the weakly
capped warm sector across the southern Appalachians this afternoon.
Primary limiting factor so far has been very marginal thermodynamic
profiles with weak mid-level lapse rates (as evident on the 18Z
Greensboro NC special RAOB) and widespread multi-layer clouds which
are slowing surface-based destabilization. Some breaks and thinning
of clouds continue to be observed, and temperatures are slowly
warming through the 70s F. This suggests a slow but gradual increase
in storm intensities through the afternoon. Vertical shear profiles
with 40-45 kt effective shear and sizeable 0-1 km hodographs will
support a risk for organized severe storms, conditional upon
evolution of the thermodynamic environment. Due to the limiting
factors and uncertainty imposed by weak thermodynamic profiles, any
WW issuance will ultimately depend on convective trends next 1-2
hours.
..Dial/Grams.. 05/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...
LAT...LON 38987982 38567872 36847869 36587999 36728135 37858104
38808066 38987982
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