Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Mon May 01 2017
Areas affected...Central NC...Central SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012002Z - 012200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are
possible over the next few hours as a line of thunderstorms
continues eastward into the central Carolinas.
DISCUSSION...Line of thunderstorms extending from WV southward into
southeast GA continues to move eastward at about 35 to 40 kt. Storms
within this line have shown gradual strengthening over the past hour
or two but the lack of higher reflectivity aloft (i.e. less than 35
dBZ at 9km/30kft) suggests robust updrafts have not been realized
yet. This is not unexpected given the marginal thermodynamic
environment sampled by the 18Z GSO sounding. Airmass downstream of
the line has warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s but some mixing
has also occurred, with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s areawide.
Adjusting the 18Z GSO sounding for these surface conditions results
in MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This limited thermodynamic
environment is expected to temper overall storm strength. Even so,
the low-level kinematic environment, characterized by veering wind
profiles supportive of 0-1 km SRH around 200-300 m2/s2, remains
favorable for some transient low-level rotation within the stronger
storms in the line. As a result, isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two, are possible over the next few hours as
the line continues eastward into the central Carolinas. Convective
trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35758129 36288118 36558056 36297980 34867993 33358097
33418218 35758129
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