SPC MD 631

MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Tue May 02 2017

Areas affected...Northeast NC and extreme southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020756Z - 021000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-end severe-weather risk for a locally strong wind
gust and/or tornado exists through 10-11Z across northeast NC and
extreme southeast VA.  WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A strongly sheared (effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt
and effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and weakly unstable (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/kg) environment during the late overnight/early morning
hours across the discussion area has been favorable for a few storms
with weak low- to mid-level rotation.  These organized storms
tracked northeast across the NC counties of Bertie, southeast
Hertford into Gates, and into Chowan and Perquimans since 07Z, with
the latest location of organized storms in Perquimans County at
0745Z.  Trends in radar imagery and last few runs of the HRRR
suggest storm development with a low-end risk for locally strong
winds and/or a brief tornado should move off the northeast NC and
extreme southeast VA coastal area by 10-11Z.

..Peters/Guyer.. 05/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   36087541 35427603 34907695 35017728 35557710 35967703
            36707646 36987582 36577554 36087541 

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