Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of MO and eastern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101739Z - 102015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm risk is developing across
portions of eastern KS and will spread into/across portions of MO
through the afternoon. Present indications are that Watch issuance
is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Ascent accompanying a long-lived MCV is impinging upon
the western extent of a broad area characterized by modest return
moisture and moderate diurnal destabilization. As a result, remnant
convection has recently exhibited some intensification across
eastern KS, with new development noted as well. This activity will
continue spreading northeastward/eastward during the next several
hours. With surface dewpoints in the middle 60s amid at least modest
insolation ahead of this activity, MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and
little inhibition will support widely scattered robust updrafts
aided by around 35-45 kt of effective shear. Isolated occurrences of
severe hail/wind will be possible. Local instances of cold-pool
amalgamation could maximize damaging-wind potential (albeit
modestly), especially as convection spreads into parts of central
MO, where low-level lapse-rate steepening has been most substantial.
However, with large-scale ascent being quite modest across the
region, reflected by a lack of convergence in the pre-convective
environment, convection should lack more substantial organization
thus minimizing severe coverage.
..Cohen/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37699500 38489535 39269513 39689452 39859373 39699257
39289210 37759284 37439395 37699500
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