SPC MD 686

MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KS

Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Areas affected...most of the TX and OK Panhandles into southwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102011Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail risk will develop across parts of
the TX Panhandle.  The severe risk is likely lower farther north
across the OK Panhandle into southwest KS but considerable
uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows intensifying thunderstorms across
the southern portion of the TX Panhandle to near the greater
Amarillo vicinity.  This developing activity is likely in response
to a destabilizing boundary layer, the reduction of convective
inhibition, and large-scale ascent spreading across northwest TX and
the TX Panhandle this afternoon in association with a mid-level
vorticity lobe through northwest TX.  

Strong deep-layer shear strongly supportive of updraft organization
(supercells) and moderate buoyancy will favor large hail growth with
the stronger/sustained updrafts across the TX Panhandle this
afternoon into the early evening.  Localized severe gusts are
possible in the vicinity of the storms.  Weaker buoyancy is implied
farther north by both mid-afternoon objective analysis and forecast
soundings owing to the influence of the early-day MCS across
TX-OK-KS.  Nevertheless, destabilization and the aforementioned lobe
of ascent may foster the development of isolated severe
thunderstorms capable primarily of a hail risk perhaps this evening.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   34830011 34800196 36670209 37710155 37630083 36370010
            34830011 

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