Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of south-central VA and far north-central
NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102350Z - 110145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A very isolated threat for large hail and strong to
locally damaging winds may exist for several hours this evening.
Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have recently formed across
south-central VA in the vicinity of a weak front. While large scale
forcing for ascent is nebulous across this region, strong
northwesterly mid-level flow does exist on the eastern periphery of
an upper level ridge centered over the Southeast/TN Valley. These
strengthening northwesterly winds with height are contributing to
around 45 kt of effective bulk shear, which will be more than
sufficient to support updraft organization. The airmass south of the
front is weakly unstable, with latest RAP Mesoanalysis suggesting
MLCAPE generally ranges from 500-1000 J/kg. Very isolated instances
of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds may be noted in
the strongest cores for the next several hours before the loss of
daytime heating results in diminishing instability. With the overall
severe threat expected to remain quite isolated, watch issuance is
not expected.
..Gleason/Hart.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36907922 37367945 37617900 37537805 37067747 36487750
36437810 36597866 36907922
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