Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017
Areas affected...Central and Northern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121556Z - 121830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible across parts of central and northern Alabama late this
morning into early this afternoon. Weather watch issuance appears
unlikely across central and northern Alabama this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place across much of central and northern Alabama where surface
dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F and the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. A small cluster of
thunderstorms is ongoing in northwest Alabama just ahead of a
vorticity max moving through eastern Mississippi evident on water
vapor imagery. Large-scale ascent associated with the vort max will
help to support continued thunderstorm development in north-central
Alabama over the next few hours. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in
northern Alabama shows 0-6 km shear of 45 kt along with some
directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This could support a
marginal severe threat with the stronger multicells or weak
supercells. Hail could occur with updrafts that rotate and
marginally severe wind gusts could occur along the leading edge of
the stronger downdrafts.
..Broyles.. 05/12/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 32758684 32778568 33218521 33718535 34428548 34858596
34848649 34538684 33928715 33438764 32868748 32758684
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