Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017
Areas affected...southeast sd...southwest mn...northwest ia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151415Z - 151545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm clusters will spread east along the
MN/IA border this morning. Gusty winds and small hail are possible.
DISCUSSION...Remnants of late evening convection, that developed
near the Black Hills of SD around 03z, have progressed into
southeast SD where an MCV appears to have developed within an
expanding cluster of thunderstorms. This activity is gradually
maturing within a weakly forced low-level warm advection regime
characterized by marginal instability but steep mid-level lapse
rates. 12z observed soundings do not suggest the air mass ahead of
this evolving MCS is particularly unstable but this cluster of
storms should propagate east along the MN/IA border. Gusty winds
and small hail are the primary threats and unless this activity
becomes stronger than currently anticipated a WW is not warranted.
..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43929762 43979484 43029428 42309516 42879657 43339779
43929762
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