SPC MD 725

MD 0725 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA

Mesoscale Discussion 0725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160150Z - 160345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Recent trends suggest that initiation of new convection is
underway across southern Minnesota.  Hail will be the primary threat
with this activity.  A WW is being considered for the region.

DISCUSSION...Models/observations suggest that intensification of the
low-level jet is underway in portions of eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.  Convergence along the nose of this low-level jet has
led to a few attempts at convective initiation over far southern
Minnesota in the past hour.  This initiation process is expected to
continue with time owing to sustained convergence by the jet and
steep mid-level lapse rates (near 9 deg C/km as evidenced on the 00
UTC Omaha, NE RAOB).  Given the elevated nature of the expected
convection, a hail threat will emerge with strongest, most
persistent convection in the region.  A severe thunderstorm watch
may be required before 10pm local time, although concerns about
overall convective coverage may serve as a limiting factor for the
overall severe threat.  Convective trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Cook/Guyer.. 05/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44279559 44469507 44689411 44749318 44569217 44089156
            43719161 43439216 43209297 43089374 43039462 43039540
            43139571 43439606 43839610 44099590 44279559 

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