SPC MD 814

MD 0814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GA

Mesoscale Discussion 0814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Areas affected...Southeast AL/FL Panhandle into southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 231338Z - 231545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated supercells and other
potentially severe thunderstorms should gradually increase across
southeast AL and the nearby FL Panhandle into southern GA this
morning. This includes a tornado risk aside from damaging winds and
possibly hail. Developmental trends are being monitored for a
possible watch.

DISCUSSION...On the southern fringe of early-day storms, latest
(13Z) surface analysis feature a weak surface low extending along
the southern AL and FL Panhandle border vicinity, with with a very
moist air mass (lower 70s F surface dewpoints) extending across
southeast AL, FL Panhandle into southern GA. Latest WSR-88D VWP data
from the likes of KEOX Fort Rucker AL reflects a wind profile that
is conducive for supercells, accentuated by 45 kt of 0-6 km shear
and 200+ 0-1 km SRH. Given additional destabilization and
expectations of steadily strengthening low/mid-level winds across
the region during the day, it appears that the potential for
supercells will gradually increase this morning. Accordingly, the
potential will exist for a tornado or two aside from damaging winds
and some hail.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 05/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30638682 31378645 32418354 31358278 30598334 30358445
            30248579 30638682 

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