Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 275...
Valid 272029Z - 272200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 275 continues.
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes
probably will continue with an evolving mesoscale convective system
developing east southeastward across the region late this afternoon.
A general increase in potentially damaging wind gusts also appear
possible through 22-00Z.
DISCUSSION...Earlier distinct clusters of strong/severe storms are
beginning to consolidate across the Missouri Ozarks and
Interstate-44 corridor of south central Missouri, in the presence of
large-scale forcing for ascent associated with enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection. This is supported by inflow of large
CAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), which may contribute to considerable further
upscale convective growth, and perhaps a consolidating and
strengthening mesoscale convective vortex.
Although the boundary layer air mass across a large part of southern
into central Missouri has been muddled by prior convective outflows,
the evolution of a significant rear inflow jet associated with any
mesovortex development may be accompanied by an increasing risk for
potentially damaging surface gusts. Otherwise, locally damaging
wind gusts (and perhaps isolated tornadoes), associated with smaller
scale mesovortices within the evolving convective system may
continue east southeastward across much of south central into
southeast Missouri through 22-00Z.
..Kerr.. 05/27/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38199178 38129050 37338963 36548965 36499082 36529192
36619282 36969230 37419188 38199178
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