Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLIGHT RISK... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over the southern half of Oklahoma, spreading into parts of north and northwest Texas, and east-central New Mexico this evening. Severe gusts and large hail are the primary threats. ...Western AR into eastern NM... A shortwave trough located over the central Plains this evening will glance the region with moderate to strong westerly mid- to high-level flow located over the area. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms from northwest TX into OK and western AR will continue to slowly push south on the leading edge of outflow/effective front draped from north-central AR westward into southwest OK and extending into eastern NM. Steep 700-500 lapse rates (8.3 degrees per km on the 00Z AMA raob) will favor strong updraft development for the next several hours with an attendant hail/wind risk. Latest models suggest the possibility for storms over the High Plains in eastern NM to move southeast into portions of the South Plains/TX Panhandle area. A tendency for upscale growth may result in a late evening to early overnight threat for isolated severe gusts with this activity. For the latest convective trends pertaining to this threat in the near term, please reference MCD 1204. ...OH Valley... An organized band of storms from western Ky into western OH is located near a frontal segment this evening. A MCV from convection last night/early this morning over the Ozarks has moved east into south-central IN and it appears this feature may be partially responsible for the thunderstorm activity. A moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints near 70 degrees F and 40 kt 700-mb flow per the KLVX VAD, suggests perhaps a localized wind damage risk may persist this evening across the OH Valley before diurnal cooling contributes to a weakening in the convective line. ..Smith.. 07/01/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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