Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262048Z - 262215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two is possible this
afternoon, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed between
Emporia and Chanute in southeast KS, with other attempts at
initiation noted along a surface boundary draped from near
Springfield MO northwest into central KS. While instability is
rather weak, given poor midlevel lapse rates noted in the 17Z Lamont
sounding and area PFCs and seasonably modest low-level moisture,
heating south of the boundary has allowed MLCAPE to rise into the
500-1000 J/kg range. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow atop weak
low-level southwesterlies is resulting in effective shear of 30-40
kts, which is sufficient for some storm organization with the
strongest updrafts. Isolated instances of hail, and perhaps strong
wind gusts, will be possible as convection develops along the weak
surface boundary and moves southeast. Given the relatively limited
coverage and magnitude of the severe threat, watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/26/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38459730 38209608 37689426 37579358 37109377 37039458
37229634 37559722 37999753 38459730
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/KGHGRG
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