SPC Jul 10, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For Day-4/Thursday through Day-8/Monday, areas of severe-
thunderstorm potential could occur at times across a broad region
extending from portions of the north-central states to the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley region, and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
This would be in association with the periphery of an extensive band
of moderate midlevel flow between ridging over the western states
and troughing over the northeast states/eastern Canada.

Medium-range model guidance indicates a general tendency for minimal
spatial overlap to occur between stronger deep shear (to the north)
and richer moisture/stronger buoyancy (to the south). This should
tend to mitigate the overall severe potential. However, small-scale
waves migrating through the flow aloft could support localized
corridors of greater severe risk at times through the period.
Regardless, model differences regarding the evolution of these
subtle waves and their influence on the severe-thunderstorm risk
render a low-predictability severe-thunderstorm forecast at this
time.

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/snHfri