SPC MD 1216

MD 1216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NE

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022016Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind are possible as widely
scattered storms develop along a quasi-stationary front. The
short-term threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe
thunderstorm watch, but the wind risk and probability of a watch may
increase later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Initial storm development has commenced along a
quasi-stationary front that extends from near Alliance to Norfolk.
Environment is likely characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg amid
steep low and mid-level lapse rates, with large surface
temperature/dew point spreads noted across central and western NE.
With a weak mid-level ridge across the High Plains, 500-mb winds
should be predominately northwesterly. Although modest in speed,
directional veering with height owing to weak low-level southerlies
is likely supporting 25-30 kt effective shear. Setup should favor
multicells to transient supercell structures with isolated
occurrences of large hail and locally severe wind gusts as the
short-term hazards. Recent NCEP and ESRL HRRR runs remain suggestive
of storm-scale consolidation later this evening (after 00Z) which
may result in an increased wind risk across parts of southern NE
into western KS.

..Grams/Hart.. 07/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42360380 42500348 42240184 41889950 41939841 41849769
            41489754 41039758 40659776 40239841 40089991 40080103
            40340170 40990239 41570348 42360380 

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