SPC MD 1419

MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CA

Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Areas affected...West central NV and extreme east central CA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251811Z - 251945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong downburst winds possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...East of the midlevel low over the northwest CA coast,
deep convection is beginning to develop over the high terrain from
the east slope of the Sierra Nevada into west central NV.  Continued
surface heating will drive sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorms to
move northward-northeastward off the high terrain, while deep-layer
vertical shear will be sufficient for some storm-scale organization.
 Steepening low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dry air will
support the potential for strong downdrafts, some of which could
produce marginally severe outflow winds.

..Thompson/Grams.. 07/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   39931758 39461734 38961730 38171730 37541742 37071787
            37061813 37381863 37981912 38431952 38741982 39011991
            39391993 39551990 39971975 40291918 40321812 39931758 

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