Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... An organizing cluster of thunderstorms still appears possible this evening across parts of the central high Plains, which may be accompanied by a swath of potentially damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Outlook Update... Ahead of the cold front trailing from the modest lower/mid tropospheric cyclone over the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes region, scattered vigorous thunderstorm activity is ongoing near Lake Michigan through northern Illinois and the Missouri/Iowa border area. Pockets of moderately large CAPE and modest deep layer shear has supported some severe hail and wind in the stronger storms, but this threat appears in the process of diminishing as the pre-frontal instability corridor begins to wane. Stronger deep layer shear is generally focused across the central Plains, on the southwestern periphery of the mid-level troughing now shifting east of the northern Rockies, supported by more pronounced veering of winds with height beneath 30-40 kt west northwesterly 500 mb flow. This has contributed to widely scattered strong to severe storm development. Some of this activity probably will linger into and through the evening hours, particularly near a remnant pre-cold frontal corridor of stronger differential surface heating, from portions of southeastern Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma. Forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, enhanced by a weak to modest southerly low-level jet, could still support the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing convective cluster this evening. In the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and sizable CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, the environment may be conducive to convection capable of producing a swath of potentially damaging wind gusts into and through the 03-06Z time frame, before activity weakens overnight. ..Kerr.. 08/11/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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