Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND INTO COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE WESTERN GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat should persist through Monday across the middle and upper Texas coastal plain region, and perhaps into portions of southern Louisiana associated with Harvey. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge is forecast to remain over the western U.S. Monday, while weak troughing digs southeast across the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the U.S. through the period. Two notable exceptions will be Harvey, which at this time appears likely to linger over the Texas coastal area, and a low forecast to develop/deepen near or just off the southeast U.S. Atlantic coast. ...Western Gulf Coast region... Harvey is forecast at this time to move little Monday, lingering along the Texas coast in the general vicinity of Victoria. Within the northeast quadrant of the system, enhanced low-level flow and the very moist boundary layer will continue to support risk for isolated/brief/weak tornadoes with the stronger convective elements embedded within stronger outer bands. ...Portions of the Carolina coastal areas... Latest NAM run depicts cyclogenesis to begin off the GA coast during the day Monday. The low is then progged to move north-northeast along the SC coast the rest of the period, with some hints of a warm sector brushing areas along the coast and just inland. The GFS on the other hand keeps the low -- and warm sector -- offshore. Should the warm sector extend inland, isolated/brief/weak tornado risk could accompany a stronger convective cell. However, confidence at this time remains too low to warrant inclusion of a probability area. ..Goss.. 08/27/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GB0aDL
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