Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... While models differ their handling of the remnants of Harvey through the medium-range period, they remain otherwise broadly similar in handling of the general larger-scale pattern evolution -- with gradual amplification of a western ridge/eastern trough configuration. Prior to the main amplification of the eastern trough, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to exit the northern Rockies and move slowly east/east-southeast across the northern Plains, and then the Great Lakes region. Little if any severe risk is evident Day 4 (Wednesday), but could increase a bit over the north-central U.S. Days 5-6 and possibly beyond as the system advances. The GFS and ECMWF show timing differences with the surface features associated with this system however, as well as substantial differences in potential for destabilization (the GFS being much more unstable than the ECMWF). As such, uncertainty precludes highlighting of any risk areas through the period.Read more
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