SPC MD 1520

MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180706Z - 180900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue developing in the OK and TX
panhandles into northwest OK next few hours, and some storms could
produce a few instances of downburst winds and hail. Overall threat
does not appear sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning, elevated storms continue developing
over the TX and OK panhandles within a zone of isentropic ascent and
warm advection north of a quasistationary front. This corridor of
ascent is being fostered by a southerly low-level jet that has
increased to around 40 kt and will gradually veer to southwesterly
during the morning in association with a progressive, low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Effective-bulk shear is modest, but the
thermodynamic environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 7.5-8 C/km
lapse rates in the 850-500 mb layer is sufficient for a few
instances of downburst winds and marginally severe hail next few
hours.

..Dial/Thompson.. 08/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35719908 35720119 35430246 36050268 36820212 37010104
            35719908 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/138MOvs