SPC MD 1582

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NE SANDHILLS

Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Areas affected...NE Sandhills

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 270615Z - 270715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large to very large hail will continue to be
possible in the near term.  It is unclear how far south the threat
will extend---perhaps to I-80.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and MRMS MESH show a couple of intense
thunderstorms with MESH diameters indicating hail sizes of 3-4
inches.  Southeast surface winds veering to the northwest and
increasing to 40-kt at 6 km AGL (per KLBF VAD data) is resulting a
wind profile very favorable for storm organization/updraft rotation.
The northwesterly flow regime aloft is co-located with steep lapse
rates above the boundary layer (7-7.5 degrees C/km) which may prove
favorable for a large to very large hail threat over the next few
hours (hail diameters ranging from 1-3 inches).

..Smith/Edwards.. 08/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41360130 42760153 42169958 41239939 41019990 41050073
            41360130 

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