Mesoscale Discussion 1646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Areas affected...northern MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142054Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail is possible for the next few hours with elevated thunderstorms. Unless severe storm coverage is higher than currently anticipated, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis places an inverted trough/front draped across northern portions of MN from west-southwest to east-northeast into the Boundary Waters region. Storms have recently intensified north of the surface boundary where cooler temperatures in the mid-upper 60s degrees F are observed. South of the boundary, moderate buoyancy is present with temperatures at or above 80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s. A mid-level impulse associated with early morning thunderstorm activity over ND has sheared eastward into northwestern MN this afternoon. Weak forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will at least provide some support for storm development. Adequate shear/buoyancy will support potential strong/severe storm development with the existing storm cluster through the remainder of the afternoon. Less certain is additional strong to severe storms developing in wake of the ongoing activity. ..Smith/Hart.. 09/14/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 47899430 48449261 48159195 47079379 47899430Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/1898gAo
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