Mesoscale Discussion 1653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Areas affected...Eastern Plains of NM...western TX Panhandle...northwest part of the TX South Plains...far southeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171928Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe gusts/large hail are possible this afternoon through the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery trends over the past few hours has shown convective growth transitioning from orphaning once it became displaced from the higher terrain to subsequent convective attempts becoming sustained as they move east into the High Plains. This is most notably reflected in radar imagery with appreciably strong cores developing from near Las Vegas, NM to east of the Sacramento Mountains. Surface observations show temperatures to the south of the composite front have warmed into the 80s to lower 90s degrees F while areas from near I-40 and north have in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Upslope flow will maintain a moisture-rich airmass across the region with boundary layer dewpoints in the 50s. RAP forecast soundings show a veering wind profile with southwesterly flow increasing with height. As a result, effective shear ranging from around 25-kt over southern NM to 40-kt where backed surface flow resides (north of I-40). The moderate buoyancy coupled with shear supportive for storm organization, including the possibility for a few supercells, will favor storm intensification through the remainder of the afternoon as storms move east into a destabilizing boundary layer. A tornado cannot be ruled out over northeast NM, where hodographs are most favorable. However, large hail/severe gusts will likely be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Guyer.. 09/17/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 33300497 35540535 37130497 36600284 33490237 33300497Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/19NdTZ9
No comments:
Post a Comment