Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible today from west Texas to Missouri. However, the overall severe risk appears minimal. ...MO to west TX... Scattered convection is ongoing from eastern KS to western OK in association with a minor shortwave impulse which will continue east today. Downstream destabilization will be curtailed by extensive clouds/rain. With only modest deep-layer shear, severe storms appear unlikely but a locally strong wind gust might accompany convection around peak heating in the MO vicinity. Farther west/southwest, greater diabatic heating is anticipated in the wake of morning convection. However, convergence along residual outflow boundaries and the dryline should remain weak owing to a lack of appreciable large-scale ascent in a zonal and moderate flow regime aloft. CAMs suggest negligible to isolated development, the latter appearing more probable in parts of west TX. While a strong storm or two is possible, the probabilistic coverage of severe wind/hail appears below 5 percent this outlook. ..Grams/Kerr.. 09/18/2017Read more
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