Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest states into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. A few stronger storms are possible across Oregon. ...Synopsis... Eastern CONUS upper troughing will continue to lose amplitude while drifting northeastward. Western CONUS ridging will also continue losing amplitude as a shortwave trough (remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lidia) moves gradually northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and another weaker shortwave trough moves across the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the Southeast/TN Valley is expected to remain largely in place while lee troughing develops over the High Plains. Thermal trough will remain over eastern WA/OR. ...Western States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated from the Southwest across the Great Basin and into the Pacific Northwest. Highest chance of strong to severe storms within this region is across the Pacific Northwest where mid-level flow remains relatively strong. Uncertainties regarding the effects of antecedent storms and overall storm coverage is too high to introduce any probabilities with this forecast. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow coupled with northwesterly flow aloft will result in a modestly sheared environment across the central High Plains. However, scant moisture return will make daytime convective initiation improbable. A strong, dynamically aided low-level jet will develop during the late evening and persist overnight but the lack of low-level moisture should preclude robust convection. ..Mosier.. 09/05/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
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