Tuesday, September 5, 2017

SPC Sep 5, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest
states into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. A few stronger storms
are possible across Oregon.

...Synopsis...
Eastern CONUS upper troughing will continue to lose amplitude while
drifting northeastward. Western CONUS ridging will also continue
losing amplitude as a shortwave trough (remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Lidia) moves gradually northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and
another weaker shortwave trough moves across the northern High
Plains. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast/TN Valley is expected to remain largely in place while lee
troughing develops over the High Plains. Thermal trough will remain
over eastern WA/OR.

...Western States...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated from the
Southwest across the Great Basin and into the Pacific Northwest.
Highest chance of strong to severe storms within this region is
across the Pacific Northwest where mid-level flow remains relatively
strong. Uncertainties regarding the effects of antecedent storms and
overall storm coverage is too high to introduce any probabilities
with this forecast.

...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow coupled with northwesterly flow aloft will result in a
modestly sheared environment across the central High Plains.
However, scant moisture return will make daytime convective
initiation improbable. A strong, dynamically aided low-level jet
will develop during the late evening and persist overnight but the
lack of low-level moisture should preclude robust convection.

..Mosier.. 09/05/2017

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