Mesoscale Discussion 1678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2017
Areas affected...Central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 011939Z - 012045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across the central High
Plains. Tornado Watch is warranted for this region and will likely
be issued by 2030z.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across the
central Rockies with high-based convection increasing across the
northern CO Rockies into the High Plains where boundary-layer
moisture is somewhat limited at the time. This activity is expected
to mature over the next few hours as it encounters increasingly
moist air mass from extreme northeast CO into southwest NE. Bow-type
structures may ultimately evolve from this activity as it propagates
northeast along a boundary draped across this region.
Farther south, strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to a
substantial dry line surge into northwest KS. CU field is increasing
in areal coverage both west and east of the dry line, indicative of
convective temperatures being breached. It appears thunderstorms
will evolve across northwest KS over the next few hours and
shear/instability favor discrete supercells. Latest HRRR model
guidance supports this idea with two distinct scenarios evolving
this evening. While storm mode may favor wind/hail with activity
spreading across northeast CO into southwest NE, higher
moisture/instability across northwest KS into south-central NE
suggests a few tornadoes may evolve from supercells across this
region. Tornado watch will likely be issued within the hour to
account for this threat.
..Darrow/Guyer.. 10/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 38390162 39470184 40320239 40940174 41309966 40049909
38439966 38390162
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