SPC MD 1679

MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012119Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may be capable of marginally severe hail
and strong wind gusts through this evening. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Aided by broad ascent from an embedded shortwave trough
lifting across North Dakota, isolated thunderstorms have developed
near an eastward-advancing front this afternoon. A small corridor of
clearing near the front has fostered MLCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg.
Furthermore, regional VWP data sample around 40-50 kt of
south/southwesterly mid-level flow, adequate for occasional updraft
organization. In turn, the strongest cores may be capable of
marginally severe hail and a few stronger gusts over the next
several hours. However, deep-layer shear vectors with a significant
component parallel to the front suggests cell mergers, as well as
undercutting by the front, will lead to a generally disorganized
evolution. Therefore, watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca/Thompson.. 10/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   45989991 46430017 47870028 48370023 48769954 48709899
            47989853 46829837 45999869 45989991 

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