SPC Oct 24, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest available medium range model output suggests
that a digging short wave impulse may contribute to further
amplification of large-scale troughing east of the Rockies late this
week.  This feature may then quickly pivot eastward toward the
Atlantic Seaboard through the weekend, accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Plains/Mississippi Valley, into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Ahead of this front, models indicate
that potential exists for significant surface cyclogenesis along a
remnant prior front returning northward toward the southern Atlantic
coast.  It appears that this could be accompanied by a rapid and
substantive inland moisture return off the western Atlantic, and
(across at least portions of southern Florida) the Caribbean.  It is
possible that associated warm sector destabilization in the presence
of strengthening shear may lead to at least some increase in severe
weather potential across parts of the southern through middle
Atlantic Coast region.  

At the present time, guidance seems to maximize this potential early
Sunday across parts of eastern North Carolina into the Virginia
Tidewater.  However, the spread within the ensemble output
concerning these developments remains sizable, and uncertainties
still appear too large to allow a forecast of 15 percent severe
probabilities at this time.

Thereafter, into early next week, the large-scale pattern evolution
across the eastern Pacific into western North America becomes more
unclear.  However, little is evident at this time to suggest an
appreciable risk for severe thunderstorms.

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