Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017
Areas affected...A small part of the southwest FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231038Z - 231215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A small window of time exists (between 11-13Z) for a
potential brief waterspout and/or tornado to develop and move across
the islands of Captiva and Pine northward, and could affect the
coastal areas of northern Lee and Charlotte counties.
DISCUSSION...Trends in the NWS radar at Tampa through 1030Z
indicated strengthening of a low-level rotational couplet embedded
within a cluster of storms which extended from 25 W FMY to 60 WSW
FMY. Lower tropospheric winds across the west coast of FL (per
trends in VWP data at TBW since 06Z) indicated strengthening in the
lowest 3 km, given the approach of a trough from the central Gulf of
Mexico. This has resulted in likely strengthening of the offshore
baroclinic zone attendant to the land breeze, while low-level
hodograph curvature has also increased since the 00Z TBW RAOB.
As the aforementioned low-level circulation continues to cross the
baroclinic zone, further strengthening is possible with waterspout
and/or tornado development. An east-northeast track of this storm
cluster will bring it across the islands and coastal areas of
northern Lee and Charlotte counties from 11-13Z. A stable
environment located farther inland from the coast suggests any
stronger, organized storms will weaken with eastward movement.
..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 26898236 26988220 26928204 26718200 26558198 26468207
26428217 26428235 26558235 26838239 26898236
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