SPC MD 196

MD 0196 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290817Z - 290915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty, locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
will remain possible early this morning near the upper
Texas/southwest Louisiana coast. However, watch issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A squall line is pushing east around 35 kt early this
morning along the upper Texas coast, and this evolution should
continue over the next several hours. Ahead of this line, ample
low-level moisture is yielding MLCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg, despite
less impressive lapse rates with eastward extent. In turn, forced
ascent along the leading edge of the line may further foster some
stronger embedded cells, capable of locally gusty, damaging winds.
While deeper-layer shear vectors (e.g., 0-3km and 0-6km) are largely
line parallel, LCH VWP data suggest sufficient streamwise vorticity
in the lowest 1 km or so, such that a line-leading brief tornado or
two could also occur.

..Picca/Thompson.. 03/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29059535 30379427 30509337 30199267 29889245 29549248
            29519258 29469351 28899508 28889517 29059535 

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