SPC MD 1401

MD 1401 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NE

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010730Z - 010900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized severe wind threat continues ahead of
northeastward-moving cluster moving into eastern NE.

DISCUSSION...Severe wind gusts have recently been noted at the KGRI
and KHSI ASOS sites associated with a small, northeastward-moving
thunderstorm cluster. While the convection with this cluster remains
relatively disorganized, a strong surface response has been noted,
with 2-hour pressure rises in excess of 4 mb in the wake of the
system. 07Z surface analysis indicates a relative theta-e maximum
immediately downstream of this system, in the vicinity of a weak
surface boundary, where new convection has recently been noted.
While the system is not expected to be very long-lived, the threat
for localized severe wind gusts may continue for the next 1-2 hours
as this small cluster approaches east-central/northeast NE. Watch
issuance is not expected due to the short-term nature of the threat.

..Dean/Edwards.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41139831 41609810 41799760 41849697 41569653 41109670
            40979708 40879756 40779799 40869826 41139831 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1401.html