SPC MD 51

MD 0051 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

Areas affected...Western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240918Z - 241115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and/or a brief
tornado will spread into the western Florida Peninsula through the
early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A semi-continuous northeast/southwest-oriented
convective line will continue to move inland across the west-central
FL Peninsula during the predawn hours, with this line featuring some
embedded small-scale bowing segments. These storms will initially
move into coastal areas north of Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg over the
next hour, while not reaching the Fort Myers vicinity until 6-7
AM/11-12Z or later. 

Ahead of these storms, surface temperatures and dewpoints have
generally increased a degree or two over the past couple of hours,
which relates to weakening boundary layer inhibition inland as
suggested by latest SPC objective analysis. In concert with the
approaching upstream upper trough, low/mid-level winds will continue
to strengthen, with latest WSR-88D VWP data from Tampa Bay
suggestive of around 350 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. This will support a
continuance of bowing segments along with the possibility of
embedded mesovortices capable of isolated damaging winds and some
tornado risk. While a Watch is not currently anticipated, convective
trends will continue to be monitored.

..Guyer/Peters.. 01/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26338180 26568222 27638288 28518269 28488202 28278185
            27428167 26868158 26458154 26338180 

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