Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Areas affected...Western North TX...West-Central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130637Z - 130800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective line moving through the TX Big County is
expected to continue eastward into north-central TX. Threat for
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will merit the issuance of
another watch.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line extends from the
southwest TX Panhandle to the Big Bend, with the central portion of
this line moving through the TX Big Country into north-central TX.
Generally eastward motion has been observed within this portion of
the line, with a recent increase in forward speed noted as
interaction with cells ahead of the line promotes
forward-propagation.
The downstream air mass is currently characterized by low-level
stability but that should quickly change as strong forcing for
ascent cools/moistens the low and mid-levels. Even so, only
relatively modest instability is anticipated. In contrast, very
strong low to mid-level flow will contribute to a strongly sheared
environment with effective bulk shear greater than 60 kt and 0-1 km
SRH from 300-500 m2/s2 anticipated.
The already well-organized character of the ongoing line coupled
with the sufficient instability and strong vertical shear will
likely result in a continued severe threat. Primary severe threat is
expected to be damaging wind gusts, although embedded/QLCS
mesovortices are possible.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32199959 32329961 33229921 33499833 33589726 33079701
31699722 30969745 30829767 30719864 31019939 31489956
32199959
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0188.html
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