Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...MOST OF PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NORTHEAST VIRGINIA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible tonight across the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Discussion... Expansive upper trough continues to move across the eastern CONUS, interacting with a modestly moist and unstable air mass ahead of it to provoke scattered thunderstorm development from Lake Erie southward into GA. Numerous watches, both Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, are in effect to cover this threat. Most significant changes to the outlook have been made on the western edge, where the outlook was trimmed based on the position the surface trough. Southern portion of the organized line extending from far western NY through WV is beginning to show signs of better organization and stronger updrafts. The northern portion near the NY/PA border remains fairly strong while storms along the line just south (across western PA) have struggled to maintain intensity. Expectation is for this entire line to gradually strengthen as the upper trough continues eastward and the associated height falls spread across the region. Additionally, an increase in storms is anticipated from central South Carolina through central North Carolina and into south-central Virginia as the low-level jet increases. This initially cellular activity could pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ..Mosier.. 04/15/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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