SPC MD 383

MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180615Z - 180715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage across
central Arkansas, with some risk for local wind damage.  New WW is
not needed at this time, but we will continue to monitor
environmental and convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a reasonably
organized, bowing band of storms moving east-northeast across
central and northern Arkansas at this time, with other storms
increasing as well across southern Arkansas.

The storms are occurring ahead of the main convective band to the
southwest, within a zone of warm advection, and are occurring near
the eastern fringe of the instability axis aligned southwest to
northeast across eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas/southern
Missouri.  With the ongoing, bowing cluster shifting east-northeast
along the instability gradient, there may be sufficient
thermodynamic support -- given the strong deep-layer wind field --
to support continued risk for locally gusty/damaging winds over the
next few hours.  With that said, limited instability and stronger
capping just east of the ongoing convection suggests that risk
should remain limited/localized.  Still, we will continue to monitor
for any possibility of uptick in convective coverage/intensity that
could warrant WW consideration.

..Goss/Edwards.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   37249211 37819016 36938929 35858999 34309107 33519207
            33749400 35089352 36549280 37249211 

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