Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019
Areas affected...portions of east-central Missouri into parts of
southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 180716Z - 180915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Limited/local severe risk may continue for a few hours,
though WW is not anticipated downstream from WW 80.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weakening band of storms
moving quickly eastward across southwest/south-central Missouri,
with the storms likely to be slightly elevated above a weakly stable
boundary layer -- per 06Z SGF special RAOB, and subsequent, slight
downward trends in surface temperatures/dewpoints across the area.
While gusty winds will remain possible as long as the band retains
any semblance of organization, risk for winds in excess of severe
levels should continue to gradually diminish.
Farther east into portions of southern Missouri, a cluster of
elevated/locally stronger storms is ongoing. While occasional,
stronger storm pulses have been capable of producing hail near
severe levels per WDSS MESH data, the limited degree of instability
should continue to temper large hail risk. As such, a new WW --
downstream of WW 80 over southwest Missouri -- is not anticipated.
..Goss/Edwards.. 04/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38259274 39179166 39629023 39488799 38258856 37169247
38259274
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0384.html
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