Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019
Areas affected...portions of central and southern OK into northern
and central TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 202...203...204...
Valid 210724Z - 210900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 202, 203, 204 continues.
SUMMARY...And intense bow will track across parts of central and
southern OK the next few hours, posing a threat for locally damaging
wind and hail. Additional storms across northern into central TX are
expected to weaken with time and eastward extent, though may still
pose a strong wind or brief tornado threat in the short-term.
DISCUSSION...An intense bow located over Cotton County OK recently
produced a 74 mph wind at the Grandfield Mesonet station. Golfball
size hail was also reported near Electra in Wichita County TX within
the past hour. This bow should continue to track northeast along an
instability gradient into an area of relatively weaker MLCIN as
compared to further south along the Red River into northern and
central TX. Given strong effective shear and a moist boundary layer
downstream of the bow, severe threat could persist across parts of
southern/central OK for a few more hours where the airmass has
largely been free of convection most of the day and nighttime hours.
Because WW 203 and 204 do not expire for several more hours, this
threat should remain contained without the need for extension or
re-issuance.
Additional storms were shifting east/northeast across western North
Texas southwestward toward the Concho Valley vicinity in WW 202.
Much of this line of convection has weakened below severe limits,
through semi-discrete cells have occasionally shown tornadic
characteristics on the southern end of the line in the WFO San
Angelo area. Mesoanalysis shows strong MLCIN across most of TX
downstream from this activity as plume of midlevel warm air from the
Mexican Plateau has overspread the region. As such, convection in TX
should continue to weaken with time and eastward extent and it is
unlikely any downstream watches will be needed, though trends will
be monitored closely.
..Leitman.. 05/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31640072 33099959 33529939 34499869 35219766 35529708
35449646 35109619 34379629 33319705 32379801 31489888
30290014 30210150 30320178 30660152 31240101 31640072
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0719.html
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