SPC MD 829

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Kansas...Northeast
Oklahoma...Western Missouri...Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

Valid 270647Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.

SUMMARY...A significant wind damage and some hail threat will
continue as a line of storms moves eastward into eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next few hours. A new watch will likely be
necessary to the east of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed large-scale bowing line segment is
currently approaching the I-35 corridor in east-central Kansas. The
line is moving east at about 40 kt and is likely accompanied by wind
damage along the leading edge. Salina, KS had a 66 kt gust over the
last half hour and this is probably representative further south
along the bowing parts of the the line. Ahead of the squall-line, a
pocket of moderate instability is present across east-central Kansas
where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, the RAP is showing a corridor of steep mid-level lapse
rates just ahead of the squall-line with 700-500 mb lapse rates
estimated to be near 8.0 C/km according to the RAP. This combined
with a 50 to 60 kt rear inflow jet at 700 mb directly behind the
line will be favorable for widespread wind damage across central and
eastern Kansas where wind gusts above 70 kt will be possible. The
severe threat is expected to increase across far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next 2 to 3 hours. Another watch issuance
may be needed in this area.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

LAT...LON   38529354 39229376 40139454 40559575 40469676 40139761
            39449738 39169730 38249720 37489725 36739759 36299726
            36369671 37109403 38529354 

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