Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms mainly producing scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will continue across parts of central into south Texas this evening. ...TX... A bowing line of storms producing damaging winds will continue generally southward over south-central TX this evening. Isolated large hail and perhaps a brief tornado will also be possible with supercells embedded within the line, but scattered damaging winds remain the primary threat. The airmass immediately ahead of this convection remains strongly unstable, with MLCAPE likely around 2500-3000 J/kg or greater. Primary uncertainty remains how far south this line will maintain its intensity. 00Z soundings from CRP and DRT show a strongly unstable surface-based parcel, but convective inhibition will increase this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Still, current expectations are for the line to remain capable of producing damaging winds over the next few hours (until at least 03-04Z), and significant severe gusts remain possible in the short term between Austin and San Antonio. There may be some tendency for the line to develop south-southwestward into the area of maximum instability this evening, and severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for this possibility. Farther west, convection along the southward-moving cold front has remained more isolated, but some wind/hail threat will persist ahead of the front. Late tonight the line should weaken across south into deep south TX as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly hostile to maintenance of intense updrafts. ..Gleason.. 06/10/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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