SPC Jun 14, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR NORTHEAST
NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and severe wind gusts are
possible into mid/late evening from northeast New Mexico into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Other more
isolated strong storms will be possible this evening across portions
of the central and southern High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorms have recently intensified across portions of northeast
NM into adjacent portions of far southeast CO and the OK Panhandle.
These storms will initially pose a large hail threat, given the
steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable buoyancy/shear noted on the
00Z AMA sounding and recent mesoanalyses. There is some potential
for upscale growth this evening into the TX Panhandle as activity
spreads into an increasing low-level jet, which would result in an
increasing severe wind threat for awhile this evening. See MCD 1056
for more information. 

Other more isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
remainder of the High Plains into mid-evening before increasing CINH
results in an overall decreasing trend. Large hail and isolated
severe wind gusts will be possible with the strongest
cells/clusters. 

...Northern Great Basin and adjacent portions of the Intermountain
West...
Widely scattered strong storms will continue for a few hours this
evening from northern NV into portions of northern UT, southeast ID,
and western WY. Isolated severe wind gusts will continue to be the
primary threat.  

...Southern NJ...
A band of convection with weak rotation noted is ongoing at 0045Z
across southern NJ. Instability is quite weak and little lightning
activity is noted with this convection, but there will be some
threat for isolated damaging wind gusts until around 02Z until this
convection weakens or moves offshore.

..Dean.. 06/14/2019

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html