Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable scattered damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible across portions of central into northeastern Montana and western North Dakota this evening and tonight. Other isolated strong to severe storms may occur overnight across parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... Storms have grown upscale into a bowing complex across north-central MT early this evening. Tendency should be for this convection to continue east-northeastward this evening and overnight as low-level easterly flow strengthens across eastern MT and western ND. With a linear mode expected to remain dominant, damaging winds should be the primary threat. But, isolated large hail and a tornado or two remain possible in the short term with any supercells embedded within the line given the strong shear that will be present across this region. Depending on the track of these storms this evening, an isolated damaging wind threat may continue into parts of western ND late tonight. ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... A long-lived MCS has recently weakened over Lake Michigan and northeastern IL. The airmass downstream of this line of storms is only weakly unstable. While a very isolated strong/gusty wind threat could persist through the next hour or two into western Lower MI and northern IN, increasing convective inhibition with eastward extent this evening should greatly limit the overall severe threat. In the wake of this activity, there is some potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across parts of southern MN into northern IA and WI this evening and overnight as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across this area. A convectively reinforced boundary lies northwest to southeast from southern MN into northeastern IA this evening. If storms do redevelop on/near this boundary, they will have the potential to become severe. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt would conditionally support supercells, and steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 00Z OAX sounding have likely overspread this region based on latest mesoanalysis estimates. Isolated large hail would be an initial threat with more discrete convection, with strong/gusty winds possible if storms can congeal into a line and spread south-southeastward along the surface boundary later tonight. Primary uncertainty remains if storms will initiate across this region on the warm or cool side of this boundary. The Marginal Risk across the Upper Midwest has been reconfigured to account for this convective potential tonight. ...Elsewhere... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue to diminish this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and southern High Plains with the loss of daytime heating. Weak shear across this regions should preclude an organized severe threat from persisting overnight. ..Gleason.. 06/28/2019Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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