SPC MD 1065

MD 1065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 150146Z - 150345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in
coverage over portions of southeastern Nebraska this evening. These
storms will pose at least a risk for isolated large hail and
damaging wind gusts through the evening. Uncertainty regarding
coverage of strong/severe convection should preclude a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar/Satellite trends indicate thunderstorms are
increasing along/near a remnant frontal boundary over portions of
southeastern Nebraska. While strong buoyancy exists over the area
(2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE), this area remains on the northern
periphery of the stronger mid-level flow -- with around 30 knots of
effective bulk shear per KOAX sounding and mesoanalysis data. While
periodic bouts of large hail and damaging wind are possible, the
current thinking is that the overall coverage of strong/severe
convection should remain limited enough to preclude a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

..Elliott/Guyer.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40749833 40969796 41089741 41249673 41199640 41059604
            40629594 40309616 40109646 40019725 40039830 40159846
            40549858 40749833 

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