SPC MD 1080

MD 1080 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 160013Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity/coverage the
next 1-2 hours, posing a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few clusters of storms have
developed across the Texas Panhandle, with large hail of 1-2 inches
in diameter being reported. As this ongoing activity spreads
eastward it will encounter a more favorable thermodynamic
environment across the eastern Texas Panhandle and southwest
Oklahoma, where surface dew point temperatures are in the upper 60s
to low 70 F and MLCAPE values are approaching 3500-4000 J/kg. Large
hail will remain possible with these storms, and with time, a
damaging wind threat may emerge if storms can continue to organize
and grow upscale.

Farther east, visible satellite trends show an increase in vertical
development within the boundary-layer cumulus field across northwest
Oklahoma and into north-central/northeast, with weak reflectivity
echos showing up on radar. This development appears focused along an
inverted trough/weak cold front, where low-level moisture
convergence is maximized and surface dew point temperatures are in
the low 70s F. 

The thermodynamic environment in this region is quite supportive of
rigorous thunderstorm development the next 1-2 hours, with MLCAPE of
4000-4500 J/kg little appreciable MLCIN. Steep low and mid-level
lapse rates (8-9 C/km) will support a threat for damaging wind gusts
along with large hail. Deep-layer shear remains somewhat marginal at
this time (20-25 kt effective bulk shear), although forecast RAP
soundings indicate perhaps some increase (approaching 30-35 kt) may
occur through the evening. With time, storms here may organize into
a multicellular cluster, as supported by the latest
convection-allowing guidance.

..Karstens.. 06/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33029919 32549998 32910106 34090172 35100194 35820102
            36529910 36879775 36859663 36409528 35579521 35179772
            34679900 33029919 

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