SPC MD 1099

MD 1099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX HILL COUNTRY...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX

Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Areas affected...TX Hill Country...parts of southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170026Z - 170130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.  Large hail
and severe gusts are the primary severe risks.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of widely
spaced thunderstorms over the TX Hill Country extending westward
into parts of southwest TX in between San Angelo and Midland. 
Surface temperatures south of an effective boundary are in the lower
90s degrees F and surface dewpoints are near 70.  The 00z Del Rio
raob showed 3800 J/kg MLCAPE with 35kt effective shear.  Farther
west, the 00z Midland raob showed a very steep surface-500mb lapse
rate (8.5-9.0 degrees C/km).  Given the CAPE/shear combination
within the corridor south of the boundary and additional swelling
cumulus development, it seems plausible a few more storms may
develop.  Any sustained updrafts will be capable of large
hail/severe gusts.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30149973 31000175 31340190 31620176 31670117 31099837
            30659815 30209827 30069897 30149973 

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