SPC MD 1109

MD 1109 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391... FOR EASTERN NM...WEST TX...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NM...West TX...Western portions of the TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...

Valid 172357Z - 180130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms will continue into
mid-evening, with a threat for isolated severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...At 2345Z, widely scattered strong thunderstorms are
ongoing from the TX Big Bend region northward into northeast NM.
Convection has primarily been discrete thus far, with a few severe
hail reports noted over the past couple of hours. Initial storms
that formed over higher terrain have been propagating eastward
across NM, and southward toward the TX Big Bend region. Additional
storms have formed in the vicinity of surface boundaries across
northeast NM (north of Tucumcari), east-central NM (near Clovis),
and more recently just northwest of Midland, TX. 

Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, locally higher near the
TX Big Bend) and effective shear of 20-30 kt will support generally
transient storm organization, with a continued threat for large hail
and locally severe wind gusts in the short term. As the low-level
jet increases this evening, an increase in storm coverage is
expected in the vicinity of the existing surface boundaries and also
with expanding outflow from ongoing convection. There is some
potential for an upscale-growing cluster to move into western
portions of the TX Panhandle and TX South Plains later this evening,
with a corresponding uptick in severe wind potential.

..Dean.. 06/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   29500441 31430447 33540527 35430550 35900462 36170368
            36340301 36330234 35100209 33050210 31830202 30290222
            29740239 29130292 28970318 29000369 29500441 

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