Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019
Areas affected...Portions of southern Kansas into extreme
northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 395...
Valid 190009Z - 190215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 395 continues.
SUMMARY...The more intense cells embedded within the MCS may produce
isolated severe hail and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of WW
extensions.
DISCUSSION...Cold pools from earlier quasi-discrete/transient
supercells have recently merged to support a semi-coherent
forward-propagating MCS across portions of southeast Kansas. This
MCS is moving into an airmass that gradually stabilizes with
eastward extent. In addition, the onset of nocturnal cooling will
further stabilize the boundary layer and increase inhibition aloft.
As such, convection is expected to become gradually elevated with
time. In addition, relatively weak low-level shear has also allowed
convective outflow to outpace the MCS along portions of the leading
line.
It is thus uncertain how far the MCS will progress past a 2-4 hour
time frame (with some of the latest HRRR runs depicting a
semi-discrete line maintaining itself until around 02-03Z). Until
then, some of the stronger storms may continue to produce isolated
severe hail, with a couple damaging wind gusts also possible. Given
the aforementioned temporal uncertainties, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the possibility of localized WW
extensions if the MCS maintains intensity past the currently covered
counties.
..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37699849 37539778 37709659 38149574 38129540 37989500
37589462 37069455 36899488 36809531 36909593 36969642
37039671 37059762 37249822 37699849
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1125.html
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