SPC MD 1126

MD 1126 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396... FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS

Mesoscale Discussion 1126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Areas affected...extreme southeast CO...southwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...

Valid 190012Z - 190115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized line segment over southeast CO will likely
move into southwest KS during the evening.  It is unclear whether a
small severe thunderstorm watch is needed over southwest KS to the
east of severe thunderstorm watch 396.  Severe gusts are the primary
hazard this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a line segment over extreme
southeast CO approaching the KS/CO border in the next 1-2 hours. 
Radar imagery and surface analysis indicate a southwestward-moving
outflow boundary over southwest KS.  This boundary is shallow
according to the 00z Dodge City raob.  Although westerly flow is
modest (25-30kt) through much of the troposphere, around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE was present at Dodge City and greater buoyancy is likely near
the CO/KS/OK border where surface temperatures are warmer ahead of
the outflow.  Given the overall scenario of moderate deep-layer
shear/instability, there may be a couple of downdrafts capable of
severe gusts this evening but coverage of these gusts is less
certain.

..Smith.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37890298 38000196 37650012 37159997 36840024 37060262
            37280307 37890298 

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