SPC MD 1183

MD 1183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220047Z - 220245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional threat for all severe hazards exists across
portions of central Kansas. Assuming storms develop, the isolated
extent of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective development have been noted (via
visible satellite imagery) along a quasi-stationary east-to-west
oriented baroclinic zone situated across portions of central Kansas.
The potential storm initiation is taking place in an environment
characterized by strong instability (3500+ J/kg MLCAPE), and strong
deep-layer shear (45-50 knots bulk effective shear). Low-level shear
is also relatively strong given the ample buoyancy in place, with
over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH (evident via mesoanalysis and latest
RAP forecast soundings), particularly within close proximity of the
aforementioned baroclinic zone. 

Large-scale ascent is currently lacking, with modest convergence
noted along the baroclinic zone, and a CVA aloft noted well to the
west with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. In the short
term, more widespread convection will struggle to develop, with
perhaps one or two cells initiating and maturing within the next
hour or so. Should a storm mature and become sustained, the
kinematic and thermodynamic environments support supercellular
development, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
or two possible. Later in the evening, the development of elevated
convection may occur as far west as central KS given the forecast
proximity of the nocturnal low-level jet terminus. These storms
would present mainly a large hail and isolated damaging wind threat,
particularly if convection can grow upscale into an MCS. 

In the short term however, convective development is very
conditional, precluding a WW issuance at this time.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39869751 39609701 38879699 38589702 38319847 38359928
            38450004 38670025 39229982 39629920 39869817 39869751 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1183.html